Amigo, It's Cold Outside

[Chris Allingham]

I had to laugh when I saw this message from HEB. Never would have thought that brisket takes priority over water, bread, etc!


ARTICLE

FEB162021

Product purchasing limits​

Providing access to products for everyone
To help protect the supply chain in Texas, we’ve implemented temporary purchase limits on certain items. Limiting product purchases is a proven way to ensure the best service and product availability for all customers. Our stores are in strong supply and we continue to restock products daily.
In an effort to make sure all customers have access to products they need, H-E-B is limiting the purchase of the following items per shopping trip/transaction:
Product Limits
The following limits apply to all H-E-B stores: (Updated 2/16)
Food items (all H-E-B stores)

• • Brisket – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 5 LB – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 10 LB – Limit 2
  • Water Gallons – Limit 2
  • Water multipack – Limit 2
  • Eggs – Limit 2
  • Milk – Limit 2
  • Bread – Limit 2

 

[John K BBQ]

Chris - I think the tag line for this post is "you know things are bad in Texas when......"

I had to laugh when I saw this message from HEB. Never would have thought that brisket takes priority over water, bread, etc!


ARTICLE

FEB162021

Product purchasing limits​

Providing access to products for everyone
To help protect the supply chain in Texas, we’ve implemented temporary purchase limits on certain items. Limiting product purchases is a proven way to ensure the best service and product availability for all customers. Our stores are in strong supply and we continue to restock products daily.
In an effort to make sure all customers have access to products they need, H-E-B is limiting the purchase of the following items per shopping trip/transaction:
Product Limits
The following limits apply to all H-E-B stores: (Updated 2/16)
Food items (all H-E-B stores)

• • Brisket – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 5 LB – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 10 LB – Limit 2
  • Water Gallons – Limit 2
  • Water multipack – Limit 2
  • Eggs – Limit 2
  • Milk – Limit 2
  • Bread – Limit 2

You know things are bad in Texas when....

 

[John K BBQ]

A lot of the infrastructure across the nation is old and outdated.

Agreed - this is a very interesting situation. I have a background in selling gas fired equipment and am familiar with the standards that facilities use when calculating infrastructure, sizing equipment etc... Generally speaking there is a huge part of the country with temperatures well below the "designed low temperature" for a long period of time AND our windmills are frozen AND our gas fired power gen plants can't get fuel AND it's so cold in major gas producing parts of the country can't put enough gas in the pipelines. Talk about a perfect storm.

My furnaces in my 90+ year old house aren't working correctly and they are < 10 years old, and I just had them both serviced in November and the filters are all new and the only thing I can think of is low gas pressure. This is exactly why hospitals in my area are required to have both natural gas and fuel oil fired heating equipment.

 

[Lynn Dollar]

I had to laugh when I saw this message from HEB. Never would have thought that brisket takes priority over water, bread, etc!


ARTICLE

FEB162021

Product purchasing limits​

Providing access to products for everyone
To help protect the supply chain in Texas, we’ve implemented temporary purchase limits on certain items. Limiting product purchases is a proven way to ensure the best service and product availability for all customers. Our stores are in strong supply and we continue to restock products daily.
In an effort to make sure all customers have access to products they need, H-E-B is limiting the purchase of the following items per shopping trip/transaction:
Product Limits
The following limits apply to all H-E-B stores: (Updated 2/16)
Food items (all H-E-B stores)

• • Brisket – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 5 LB – Limit 2
  • Frozen Chitterlings 10 LB – Limit 2
  • Water Gallons – Limit 2
  • Water multipack – Limit 2
  • Eggs – Limit 2
  • Milk – Limit 2
  • Bread – Limit 2

That is funny

Brisket is damned important

 

[ChuckH]

Really? You gotta put limit on chitterlings?

 

[Dustin Dorsey]

Run on propane in north Texas. I got this picture from the newspaper.

 

[MikeLucky]

There would be runs going on here in OKC if anyone could go anywhere. I went out today in my AWD sedan and it handled most of it like a champ, but I did catch part of a drift on an on-ramp and got stuck. 4 guys near me all immediately jumped out, one with a shovel and the other 3 pushed me back into business within about a minute of it happening. It was kind of amazing. However, we had gotten about a foot of snow and we're supposed to get up to another 7 or 8 inches tonight. We're just not built to handle they kind of snow volume here.

 

[Brian B Atlanta]

I retired from the natural gas industry as a Gas Controller. I can guarantee it sucks to be those people right now! During extended cold periods natural gas wells would freeze off at the wellhead and the producers could not meet their customers demands. When that happens the pressure in the interstate pipelines get dangerous low. The result is industrial customers get curtailed, starting with power plants that burn natural gas as fuel. Natural gas in storage can be depleted in a matter of just days when demand is high in a large area of the country. Damn, I'm glad to be retired!!!

Yes you are correct but their is more to the story which I assume you know coming from the industry. I own pipeline stocks in KMI, ET, WMB so not an expert but I know a lot about Nat Gas. So when covid hit and and oil crashed below 20 and there was a glut in Oil and Nat Gas since that is a byproduct of oil drilling fracking or whatever. The nat gas reached full storage as well as oil so they were actually burning off nat gas as it made no sense not to since the storage was full and the price of oil or gas they could not make any money. Its estimated depending on the fracker that you would lose money at anything under 40 dollar oil or higher. Many went bankrupt including Chesapeake which just emerged cause they all were carrying to much debt and when the price went south it killed them.

The majors could make money on oil some at 30 bucks. So look at this chart I posted below and you can see nat gas got to around 1.55 around covid time nobody could make money at that price. That is where supply and demand comes in and although you might not like it the Saudi's and Russia basically OPEC agreed to production cuts which at the current price of oil probably saved some of the US producers. The frackers also cut production no choice. The Saudi's can make money at around 3 bucks a barrel but since they subsidize their entire economy on oil unless its 65 bucks they run a deficit. Russia if I remember can make money at 20 bucks but again that does not help them.

Nat gas has been rising currently around 3.10 but those are forward looking contracts not spot contracts obviously this absurd weather so the spot goes into the next dimension. I really hope anyone who does not have a fixed price per therm contract for at least a year and I have 2 years that you are not gambling on the floating rate with your provider which is always around 2.5 times the the locked in rate because you are going to be horrified if your in the wrong area TX for sure if your floating at what your bill is going to be because of that spike.

The last 2 winters kept nat gas down because they were warmer than normal but this one made up for it so yes supplies probably not even close to what they were in Covid. Everybody loves cheap gasoline or natural gas the fact is its bad for the economy since all the oil producer states get killed with low energy prices and those are American jobs. Banks lending to the energy producers bad for them.

Natural Gas PRICE Today | Natural Gas Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Natural Gas per Ounce | Markets Insider

Natural Gas Price: Get all information on the Price of Natural Gas including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Ed L]

I was talking to someone that bought their house here in Truckee back in the 80’s.

Realtor told them regulations required 2 forms of heat. So either gas, propane, electric and wood heat.

The power does go out in the winter during storms.

My wood stove provides 70 percent of our heat.

 

[Timothy F. Lewis]

Eight below here this morning, coldest temperature in three years, no serious issues. I have nothing to force me out today aside from taking the trash to the curb. Glad I’m not in the south!

 

[LMichaels]

IIRC was -16 when I woke up today at 0515 but just got in from outside taking trash out (and yes I was wearing shorts and sneakers LOL) and still at -9 deg. But wind is down so actually was not really "unpleasant" out there

 

[Timothy F. Lewis]

IIRC was -16 when I woke up today at 0515 but just got in from outside taking trash out (and yes I was wearing shorts and sneakers LOL) and still at -9 deg. But wind is down so actually was not really "unpleasant" out there

Yep I took it out but, I put on a T-shirt and jeans. Totally agree about it being tolerable without much wind. There is this great big bright yellow ball in the sky and I’m freaking out a little, everything is so bright!

 

[Stefan H]

It is absolutely nuts here. And these blackouts are weird. On Monday we were out of power for up to 8h per outage. Now it is down to 4h to 5h. Power came on at 7am and lets see for how long. Then we have friends who are a few blocks away which never had a power outage at all.
It was cold the night from Monday to Tuesday and the house cooled down to 51F. Fortunately we still have a gas fire place.
My concern is my pool. I wrapped the above ground pipes with christmas lights and lots of blankets and lawn chair cushions. It provides some warmth while we have power. So far the pipes have not frozen except the pipe for my booster pump which I think has died too. Bu the main pump is still running. Hopefully by Friday we are out of this mess.
And I hope that the companies involved have learned their lessons. This is ridiculous.

 

[JKalchik]

IIRC was -16 when I woke up today at 0515 but just got in from outside taking trash out (and yes I was wearing shorts and sneakers LOL) and still at -9 deg. But wind is down so actually was not really "unpleasant" out there

You have it worse than I do, I saw -8 at 0700.

 

[Lynn Dollar]

Maybe there's some small adjustments that both govt and energy providers can do to lessen the severity. But I can't see spending millions of dollars to weatherize for sub freezing temps from a weather anomaly. If this happened three times over a 10 year period, I would say the climate has changed and investment needs to be made.

Further complication, the climate scientists tell us that Oklahoma's climate will become more arid with further climate change. That we will become a desert not suitable for agriculture. Our wheat production will move to north. And we will go into long periods of drought. The City of OKC is taking these predictions to heart, and already studying for future water supplies when our present supplies dry up. I've not read any predictions of 2 foot of snow and two weeks below freezing. This is not suppose to happen.

I would bet though, that nat gas producers will look at weatherizing their wells, as is done in Wyoming , North Dakota , et al. Because they see these spot market prices and would like to have been in a position to profit from them. That provides plenty of incentive.

 

[Richard in NS]

And maybe install winterized wind turbines in the future. Probably cannot retrofit the existing ones. They cannot be that much more expensive as they install lots up here and the utilities are making money. We get 2 to 3 ice storms per year so winterizing is a necessity.

 

[MikeLucky]

And maybe install winterized wind turbines in the future. Probably cannot retrofit the existing ones. They cannot be that much more expensive as they install lots up here and the utilities are making money. We get 2 to 3 ice storms per year so winterizing is a necessity.

That doesn't solve the 60% loss of storage by the batteries used with the wind turbines. Unfortunately this storm has shown that we are nowhere near replacing fossil fuels when it comes to extreme weather situations.

 

[Lynn Dollar]

And maybe install winterized wind turbines in the future. Probably cannot retrofit the existing ones. They cannot be that much more expensive as they install lots up here and the utilities are making money. We get 2 to 3 ice storms per year so winterizing is a necessity.

It did not matter if they were all turning , wind turbines are light years away from being relevant due to intermittency . Can't rely on it.

 

[Richard in NS]

That doesn't solve the 60% loss of storage by the batteries used with the wind turbines. Unfortunately this storm has shown that we are nowhere near replacing fossil fuels when it comes to extreme weather situations.

Mike, the wind farms here dump right onto the grid enabling the fossil fuel generators to cut back when there is enough wind. Here on the coast the wind is almost always blowing.

 

[Richard in NS]

It did not matter if they were all turning , wind turbines are light years away from being relevant due to intermittency . Can't rely on it.

Lynn, it looks from the graph that wind was producing more power than anything else and more reliably that the natural gas, or am I reading it wrong?