Coronavirus - Covid 19


 
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Ryan Burke said:
I am a vendor for Walmart in Michigan. Our Governor extended our stay at home order yesterday and also said big box store had to close several different departments that were considered non-essential, one of those being lawn and garden. Guess what you cant buy charcoal anymore in these stores. The stores blocked them off. Just got my tax check deposited today and was going to buy a Blackstone. Nope.
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I was down to 10lbs of Royal Oak lump. Not wanting to make a special trip for charcoal, I grabbed some Wegmans lump (also RO, IIRC) when I was there the other day. I saw that Lowes has double packs of KBB on sale now, so I may suck it up and go there to get some. I have two full propane tanks, but my Genesis sadly needs parts and I'm trying to minimize spending right now.
 
Steve Petrone said:
Early best estimates suggested the R naught of this virus was projected to be 7 by many. Meaning one contagious person would expect to infect 7 others (as best I understand). Yesterday I heard reports that the real number is 1.3-1.5.
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Early estimates are just that. As more research is done, the Ro number will be more clearly understood. Doing a quick search, I found one medical article that describes a model of Ro ranging from 5.5 to as high at 25.4! Really?!?

There have been earlier reports showing much lower Ro numbers. This WHO report from February puts the Ro of COVID-19 at 2 to 2.5. This U of M Health article from March says, "The Imperial College group has estimated R0 to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5. Most modeling simulations that project future cases are using Ros in that range."
 
Steve Petrone said:
the governor of NY was requesting 40,000 ventilators. Actual need 4,000. Big difference.
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Yes, a big difference. The estimate of 40,000 vents came from medical advisers to the gov, based on a worst case scenario, I'm sure.

From today's NYT:

As of Friday, Mr. Cuomo said, there were 18,569 virus patients in hospitals, a number that has increased less than 3 percent over the past two days.

“The actual curve is much, much lower than any of them projected,” Mr. Cuomo said.

The state had also projected a need for 30,000 to 40,000 ventilators, a number that, if current trends continue, far exceeds what will be needed: Fewer than 5,000 people are currently in intensive care beds.

Mr. Cuomo credited the state’s aggressive measures on social distancing — and New Yorkers’ compliance with them — for helping stem the spread of the disease.
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Really glad to see some upbeat news and some humor on the forum. Will be a long time before we will be back to what we were, but I believe this is a great group of folks that have kept ourselves from going over the edge.
Thank you for your guidance Chris, I truly appreciate it.
 
I wouldn't worry too much about Lowe's and HD closing off their lawn and garden sections and not selling charcoal. Easy for them to just move pallets of charcoal to the main aisles near the checkout lines. They always do this during the summer holiday sales anyway.
 
On 9/11, I was on vacation in Maui with my future wife. I remember us sitting on the beach, quietly watching the sunset. My eyes teared up thinking that a couple of thousand Americans had been alive that morning but were now dead at sunset.

Today, Friday, April 10, 2020...2,074 Americans died of Covid-19 in a single day. Over 18,000 dead in total. My eyes are tearing up again.
 
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