COOK now at $2.98 a share, down from high of $32.59, a 92% drop


 
Brett-EDH

Brett-EDH

TVWBB Hall of Fame
COOK, Traeger, is experiencing a similar or worse market tightening than Weber. While many here have hashed through the Weber news and performance results, I thought I'd share COOK's performance, or lack thereof as the entire bbq/grilling segment is being punished for poor performance as many of the past two year's worth of sales were basically pulled forward into those sales years due to Covid.

So now that the sales pipelines are "empty," or a more normal, what do people think the future trends are for both of these companies (and DTC, Solo Brands) too? Mind you, Solo Brands is a bit more diversified than Weber or Traeger but are also in the backyard/fire category per analysts segmentation.

Some valid questions; will Traeger get bought by a larger outdoor lifestyle company? Are Trager smokers priced outside of the mainstream smoker market? Has Traeger already reached its peak or near peak market saturation?

Discuss.
 
Bob H. said:
Hoping that its not a race to the bottom!
Click to expand...
With Webers market cap at $1.8B and COOK at $346M, it just might be a race to the bottom.

Once you leave the mainstream grill market (smokers too) unit prices start at $2500 and only go up from there.

There are plenty of $5k grills to choose from these days. Built from plate steel. And they’ll last a lifetime.

It’s the entry level market that Weber has owned for decades and even Traeger has a $4k, IIRC, priced smoker.
 
Brett-EDH said:
It’s the entry level market that Weber has owned for decades
Click to expand...
Not sure about that statement, they certainly don't own it for the gasser market just drive by HD and Lowes with probably 50 grills outside all priced way less then a Spirit. To me they are in a better place on the charcoal side those of us who own performers or whatever never considered some one else's offerings not talking about a MB gravity feed. Cook has not warned it was not like they were going to make a ton of money this qtr its a lousy business right now and maybe some time before it rebounds as you stated tons of stuff pulled forward. The pandemic was a gift for private equity to get out what they could in the IPO's If I remember and might be incorrect none of that IPO money went to the companies to pay down debt it went to the equity guys.

Cook might be a one trick pony but that is not always a bad thing. I look at a pellet grill as someone who wants to get into smoking not deal with charcoal so upgrade the gasser during the pandemic some might have upgraded before that still got some money for a pellet grill as a follow up the question is and people have money but lets say your want to dip your toes in buy a Pit Boss for 5-6 hundred or jump to a higher end Traeger or Smokefire. Not sure anyone has a clue obviously Weber doesn't if Traeger beats or makes the number they are probably ok but again they don't make a lot of money.

This is a rehab forum we generally are useless to Weber yes some members bought new stuff but lots of people like me bought a 2013 Gas Assist Performer spent some money for some grates, SNS and other stuff still way in under 200 with no incentive to buy a new one. I got a Weber Silver C rehabbed that with the help of members SS rod grates its a redhead burners are fine no intention of dumping that in the future either. Although I would prefer N/S burners never gonna do rotis so could care less.
 
Brian B Atlanta said:
Not sure about that statement, they certainly don't own it for the gasser market just drive by HD and Lowes with probably 50 grills outside all priced way less then a Spirit. To me they are in a better place on the charcoal side those of us who own performers or whatever never considered some one else's offerings not talking about a MB gravity feed. Cook has not warned it was not like they were going to make a ton of money this qtr its a lousy business right now and maybe some time before it rebounds as you stated tons of stuff pulled forward. The pandemic was a gift for private equity to get out what they could in the IPO's If I remember and might be incorrect none of that IPO money went to the companies to pay down debt it went to the equity guys.

Cook might be a one trick pony but that is not always a bad thing. I look at a pellet grill as someone who wants to get into smoking not deal with charcoal so upgrade the gasser during the pandemic some might have upgraded before that still got some money for a pellet grill as a follow up the question is and people have money but lets say your want to dip your toes in buy a Pit Boss for 5-6 hundred or jump to a higher end Traeger or Smokefire. Not sure anyone has a clue obviously Weber doesn't if Traeger beats or makes the number they are probably ok but again they don't make a lot of money.

This is a rehab forum we generally are useless to Weber yes some members bought new stuff but lots of people like me bought a 2013 Gas Assist Performer spent some money for some grates, SNS and other stuff still way in under 200 with no incentive to buy a new one. I got a Weber Silver C rehabbed that with the help of members SS rod grates its a redhead burners are fine no intention of dumping that in the future either. Although I would prefer N/S burners never gonna do rotis so could care less.
Click to expand...
Some but not all here are refurbers. I think that’s just a part of TVWBB.

From my own experience, once you buy a cheapsheet Depot grill, and it only lasts 2 seasons, you then step up to buying a Weber.

I do think the charcoal game has changed, and a lot too. Charcoal is much more sophisticated today than ever, with so many quality choices in the market.

IMO, pricing has hit every grill maker and company. The crappy grills are now $400-500. So where’s the value in those over a Weber?

Im not an expert but if Weber’s sales are in the B’s, then they have to be doing something right. That’s a lot of brand cachet to carry and wield around.
 
Brett, the crappy grills in the gasser market are not 4-5 hundred go to HD's site or Lowes just using this for an example who is to say its a crappy grill it might be but Char Broil has been around for a long time its probably no Weber notice its discounted the grill selling season is basically over now stuff starts to get cleared out.


Don't get caught up well sales are in the billions means nothing if you can't make any money and they are not. Lots of companies have had sales in the billions and never made any meaningful money. Peleton is a 3.5 billion dollar company and losing thier shirts big time might not even be around down the road, they also rode the pandemic with big profits but now thats over.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't follow this but sooner or later companies like traeger , dicks, peleton, netfix, pick any rapid growing company.....saturate their market and new sales growth declines precipitously. High growth gets a high PE.... Until the high growth runs out I would not be surprised if in the last several years we reached that point.

A lot of people are also finding out that while pellet cookers are convenient they actually don't produce that great of food with regard to the smoke flavor. I'm sure there's work arounds , but it may not be the results that some home barbecuers were sold. My brother has one and he never uses it.
 
MartinB said:
I don't follow this but sooner or later companies like traeger , dicks, peleton, netfix, pick any rapid growing company.....saturate their market and new sales growth declines precipitously. High growth gets a high PE.... Until the high growth runs out I would not be surprised if in the last several years we reached that point.

A lot of people are also finding out that while pellet cookers are convenient they actually don't produce that great of food with regard to the smoke flavor. I'm sure there's work arounds , but it may not be the results that some home barbecuers were sold. My brother has one and he never uses it.
Click to expand...
I share the same sentiments. My long view on pellets is that they’ll fall by the wayside. The results are less than promised and while convenient, they aren’t all that for those seeking a traditional smoke flavor profile.
 
I watched a guy on BBQ USA the other day competing with a pellet grill....
But I do agree with what you just said Brett.
Oh look....squirrel....
I don't dabble in shares....while I do invest I just don't play the market.....mainly because I don't know enough and cannot trust myself.
I sometimes wish I did though.
 
I don't believe pellets will fall by the wayside how many said that about charcoal and that market seems to be doing fine. Smoke is subjective my wife does not like a lot of smoke in our foods which since I have a performer and uds I can easily regulate that so maybe she would like food off a pellet grill problem is we don't know anyone who owns a pellet grill so neither of us have ever had any food off one.

The Smokefire despite having issues seems to have solved the pellet grill smoke issue if you desire more smoke at least from what I have read from that thread.

Its going to take awhile for Weber to burn off that inventory I suspect Trager you need to see the earning report to see if they have the same problems.
 
Brian B Atlanta said:
I don't believe pellets will fall by the wayside how many said that about charcoal and that market seems to be doing fine. Smoke is subjective my wife does not like a lot of smoke in our foods which since I have a performer and uds I can easily regulate that so maybe she would like food off a pellet grill problem is we don't know anyone who owns a pellet grill so neither of us have ever had any food off one.

The Smokefire despite having issues seems to have solved the pellet grill smoke issue if you desire more smoke at least from what I have read from that thread.

Its going to take awhile for Weber to burn off that inventory I suspect Trager you need to see the earning report to see if they have the same problems.
Click to expand...
If I had to guess the market penetration, I’d estimate:

1 gas
2 charcoal
3 pellets
4 sticks

I see pellets more as a fad. But I could easily be wrong.
 
Brett-EDH said:
If I had to guess the market penetration, I’d estimate:

1 gas
2 charcoal
3 pellets
4 sticks

I see pellets more as a fad. But I could easily be wrong.
Click to expand...
With the price of charcoal roughly up about $ 2.00 a bag ( around here) I would guess more gassers are going to be used for everyday grilling, save the expensive charcoal for smoking and grilling top quality meats. ( that's my plan tonight ) on some tomahawks and strips.
 
timothy said:
With the price of charcoal roughly up about $ 2.00 a bag ( around here) I would guess more gassers are going to be used for everyday grilling, save the expensive charcoal for smoking and grilling top quality meats. ( that's my plan tonight ) on some tomahawks and strips.
Click to expand...
Costco salmon went from $9.99#, to $10.99# and was $11.99# Tuesday. We still bought it at $11.99# and used JDXL. I burned coal for 30 mins max.

Personally, my food is still better than any restaurant and less expensive too. The flavor from a gasser doesn't compare to lump coal IMO.

my coal gross costs are lower than my NG bill was when i used my Summit S670. so i thnk i think i'm still ahead being a coal user and food quality. and my wine isn't 2-3x because i'm not eating out.
 
Brett-EDH said:
Costco salmon went from $9.99#, to $10.99# and was $11.99# Tuesday. We still bought it at $11.99# and used JDXL. I burned coal for 30 mins max.

Personally, my food is still better than any restaurant and less expensive too. The flavor from a gasser doesn't compare to lump coal IMO.

my coal gross costs are lower than my NG bill was when i used my Summit S670. so i thnk i think i'm still ahead being a coal user and food quality. and my wine isn't 2-3x because i'm not eating out.
Click to expand...
I only have a propane grill, so I can’t agree or disagree about the taste quality of food cooked on lump coal.

Everything else you said, I agree 100%

And from my point of view, we are in the minority. Maybe not on this forum, but the hoi polloi, if you know what I mean.
 
Brian B Atlanta said:
No joy in grill land Cook reports they still eaked out a small very small profit.

finance.yahoo.com

Traeger Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results

SALT LAKE CITY, August 10, 2022--Traeger, Inc. ("Traeger" or the "Company") (NYSE: COOK), creator and category leader of the wood pellet grill, today announced its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2022.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
play with this number:

  • Grills decreased 24.6% to $117.7 million as compared to the second quarter last year. The decrease was primarily driven by lower unit volume, partially offset by a higher average selling price resulting from price increases taken in the second half of 2021 and early 2022.
Timberline grills - $3800 - $2100, across 4 models
Ironwood grills - $1600 - $1400 2 models
Pro line - $900 - $600 6 models

I'll give them a breakdown of 25% at the top 30% in the middle and 45% at the bottom of their SKUs for sell through.

$29.4M at the top of the line
$35.3M in the middle line
$52.9M at the bottom line

$2950 avg sell price at top = 9975 grills sold
$1500 avg sell price in the middle = 23540 grills sold
$750 avg sell price at the bottom = 70620 grills sold

that's 104,135 estimated grills sold in prime season.

that's 2083 grills per state, across 50 states.

do you think that's a lot of grill sales? and yes, we know that 50 states aren't selling through in even numbers. this is just a visualizer number to understand gross unit sales.
 
Brett-EDH said:
play with this number:

  • Grills decreased 24.6% to $117.7 million as compared to the second quarter last year. The decrease was primarily driven by lower unit volume, partially offset by a higher average selling price resulting from price increases taken in the second half of 2021 and early 2022.
Timberline grills - $3800 - $2100, across 4 models
Ironwood grills - $1600 - $1400 2 models
Pro line - $900 - $600 6 models

I'll give them a breakdown of 25% at the top 30% in the middle and 45% at the bottom of their SKUs for sell through.

$29.4M at the top of the line
$35.3M in the middle line
$52.9M at the bottom line

$2950 avg sell price at top = 9975 grills sold
$1500 avg sell price in the middle = 23540 grills sold
$750 avg sell price at the bottom = 70620 grills sold

that's 104,135 estimated grills sold in prime season.

that's 2083 grills per state, across 50 states.

do you think that's a lot of grill sales? and yes, we know that 50 states aren't selling through in even numbers. this is just a visualizer number to understand gross unit sales.
Click to expand...
No, that doesn't seem like a very healthy number of grills sold. I found an article that said that over 14 million grills of all types were sold in the US between April 2020 and February of 2021, the height of Covid. It would seem that current and future sales may have been stolen by the pandemic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

 

Back
Top