WEBR: Crisis/Opportunity?


 
K

Kevin Walsh

TVWBB Fan
Weber, Inc. today replaced its chief executive, suspended its dividend and withdrew financial guidance for the year. $6.56 at market close, down more than 50% this year. Trying to decide whether I should sell my (modest) holdings, hang in there, or double down . . .
 
Kevin Walsh said:
Weber, Inc. today replaced its chief executive, suspended its dividend and withdrew financial guidance for the year. $6.56 at market close, down more than 50% this year. Trying to decide whether I should sell my (modest) holdings, hang in there, or double down . . .
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I’ve held my position. If anything they’ll either right the ship or get bought out.
 
$19.55 a year ago (or so)? Almost a third of that now? A company we probably all feel isn't going anywhere? I'm looking at it as a great buying opportunity, but I'm certainly no expert.

This is not any buy/sell advice. Just the way I'm personally looking at it.
 
I hadn't noticed Traeger's results back in May.

First Quarter FY 22 Highlights
  • Total revenues decreased 5.0% to $223.7 million
  • Gross profit margin of 37.4% down 530 basis points compared to prior year
  • Net loss of $8.4 million; net loss of $0.07 per share
  • Adjusted net income of $20.0 million; adjusted net income of $0.17 per share
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $30.9 million
 
Chris Allingham said:
I hadn't noticed Traeger's results back in May.

First Quarter FY 22 Highlights
  • Total revenues decreased 5.0% to $223.7 million
  • Gross profit margin of 37.4% down 530 basis points compared to prior year
  • Net loss of $8.4 million; net loss of $0.07 per share
  • Adjusted net income of $20.0 million; adjusted net income of $0.17 per share
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $30.9 million
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IIRC, traeger announced RIFs today or recently per sales results and data. Every company is going to be hammered in this bear market. Focus on fundamentals and everything else falls into place.

Webers internal costs ran away from them last year when shipping containers went from $4k to $16k per container.

I can tell you that Costco has booked its own ships to move its goods from china to US. Because they needed to protect their supply lines.

The party’s over for some people. The free money is done. Time to get back to work and fix the worker participation rate. Then the job market will come back to more normal.

Im not a market expert but I’ve seen a few boom and bust cycles to see how this can play out.
 
Personally, I think they are going through a rough patch right now and the stock is getting hammered, but a company and brand like this has staying power. I'm holding out for a little while longer in order to try and pick up the stock at lower price with a better margin of safety. Maybe $5, or ideally $4. But that might be too much to hope for.
 
Pinny said:
Personally, I think they are going through a rough patch right now and the stock is getting hammered, but a company and brand like this has staying power. I'm holding out for a little while longer in order to try and pick up the stock at lower price with a better margin of safety. Maybe $5, or ideally $4. But that might be too much to hope for.
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Don't count on it. Think Chrysler Corp. Now pretty much just an importer and a shill for Nissan, Mitsubishi, Renault and Fiat.
 
My opinion...worth what you're paying for it, is that brand loyalty for Weber is high, and brand recognition is high. Weber appeals to the middle $$$ market. Among the loyal Weber market, patriotism is high. I believe Weber will survive and have an opportunity for a comeback. When the time comes, they will have an opportunity to support their patriotic side of the market by manufacturing decisions that should be under review now. It may cost them a lot to change their manufacturing choices. Maybe they won't change. If not, I suspect they'll go the way of most other China importing companies.
 
I just came from farm and fleet and the new performer was going for $ 549.00
That's like a C-note jump from last year.
 
John_NJ said:
Speaking of Chinese made goods, anybody following what’s going on in Taiwan?
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Yep. Now let's also remember everyone is in hock to the Chinese. All these so called "chip/component shortages?". Why do you think it's really happening? Heck even our own military is buying electronics from them. I'm gonna stop right here now. Because if I say any more I will end up in TVWBB jail :D
 
LMichaels said:
Yep. Now let's also remember everyone is in hock to the Chinese. All these so called "chip/component shortages?". Why do you think it's really happening? Heck even our own military is buying electronics from them. I'm gonna stop right here now. Because if I say any more I will end up in TVWBB jail :D
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The bad news is nothing lasts forever.

The good news is nothing lasts forever.

Now back to our regular scheduled broadcast
 
LMichaels said:
Yep. Now let's also remember everyone is in hock to the Chinese. All these so called "chip/component shortages?". Why do you think it's really happening? Heck even our own military is buying electronics from them. I'm gonna stop right here now. Because if I say any more I will end up in TVWBB jail :D
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Yeah, w/o being political, the chip issue will get substantially worse if China makes a move on Taiwan. I don't many people are even clued into what is/can happen here.

Once again, my manual transmission car will win this race because it uses fewer computer components. Plus 1 for old-school!
 
Currently my worst holding, luckily a small portion of the portfolio. As much as I don't want it I see them getting bought by Lowes or Home Depot just like Craftsman.
 
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