I am going to give the Scientific Method a shot at answering this question.
Question - Does a smoker use less fuel when using an ATC?
Hypothesis - Less fuel will be used because the ATC controls the temps better than manually adjusting the vents.
Testing - Set up two smokers, one with ATC, one without ATC. Set a bowl of water on the top grate of each smoker with a gallon of water at the same temperature. Light both smokers equally. Control the temperature of one with the ATC, maintain the other manually by adjusting the vents to the same temperature as the ATC. When the temperature of the water hits 180 degrees, stop, put out the coals and then weigh the remaining coals.
Analysis - During the time it took the water to get to 180 degrees, the temperature of the smoker with the ATC kept a constant temperature. The other smoker had a variance of plus or minus 25 degrees. During the lower temperature variance, less fuel was used, during the higher temperature variance, more fuel was used. In the case of being unable to control the temperature and the temperature was low during the whole time. It would take longer for the temperature of the water to reach 180 degrees, but since less fuel would be consumed during this time frame the total fuel consumption would be the same. For higher temperatures, more fuel would be consumed per hour, but since the temperature is higher, it would take less time for the water to reach 180 degrees.
My conclusion is that all things being equal, with or without an ATC your fuel consumption would remain the same.
Now, if I used a water pan to help moderate my temperature without an ATC, that's a whole different ball game!